Ron Paul's Impossible Math Problem

If you’ve ever gone out in public, paid any smattering of attention to the GOP Primary process, or even gotten online you know that there’s a war on. The GOP candidates are fighting hard for the nomination, and while each has waged a good war and a good fight, the end is nigh for one, maybe two of the candidates. Ron Paul is one such candidate who is at the end of even possibly becoming the nominee.

Stats website Intrade currently gives Ron Paul a 1.3% chance of winning the nomination. Such a percentage number means that Mitt Romney would have to get caught in a hot tub full of seventeen-year-old chicks, Rick Santorum would have to eat a live kitten on camera, and Newt Gingrich would have to go streaking through Washington D.C. for Paul to have a shot at the nomination. In short? It’s over. First, Ron Paul has an impossible math problem to beat. Second, he lacks the support to propel himself past the pull of reality and into the chair of the nomination.

The Republican primary is basically a fight for 1144 out of two thousand some-odd delegates. Who ever reaches 1144 first, wins. If no one wins 1144 delegates the convention is a brokered mess—candidates trying to sway delegates to their side.

Currently, 928 delegates have been “won” more or less according to the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times. This leaves 1358 delegates in the pool, according to the New York Times site. This is Ron Paul’s Impossible Math Problem: currently Mr. Paul has 48 delegates, but for the sake of nice round numbers, we’ll say 44. This means Mr. Paul needs 1100 delegates out of the remaining 1358 to get himself to the 1144 majority. Expressed as a percentage, Ron Paul needs to win 81% of the remaining delegates, by winning 81% of the vote more or less.

This brings up the second issue: if Ron Paul is a rocket, he’s out of gas and gravity is knocking on his door. He simply does not have the support he needs to win the nomination.
First, the reality of the states left in the pool will deny him the wins he needs. California (where Romney is +20 ahead) and Utah (LDS) are almost guaranteed Romney states. Between these two states there are 212 delegates Ron is almost certainly not going to win or—even get a taste of as these are winner-take-all states.

Thus, out of 1358 remaining delegates 212 aren’t even really a possibility. Again, rounding leaves us at 1358-200=1158. This means he must take first in a long list of remaining states…except that doesn’t work either. Most of the remaining states are not winner-take-all, which means that even if Paul took first place in somewhere like Illinois, he would have to share delegates with the 2^nd place man. In short: Ron Paul really can’t afford to lose…anything. He has to take 1^st place almost always from here on out in order to secure the nomination...and we haven't talked about Louisiana or Missouri where Rick Santorum is expected to win.

Second, while Ron Paul needs an impossibly long list of 1^st place finishes to clinch the GOP title; his own record denies that this is even reasonable to talk about. Ron Paul has yet to finish better than second. His best finish was in Virginia, and arguably because it was only himself versus Mitt Romney on the ballot. The road to the nomination and ultimately the White House is not paved with second, third, and last place finishes—and that’s all Ron Paul has. He needs the one thing he doesn’t have: solid, repeatable first-place finishes.

Thirdly, the number of 81% is a haunting number for the Paul supporters. Compared to the other candidates Paul has a bad record. If the “other guys” are lumped together (as Paulistas are wont to do) they can be thrown into the category of “Not-Ron-Paul”. Given this idea, “Not-Ron-Paul” usually gets 80% or more of the popular vote while Ron Paul takes 20% or less. Yes, Virginia was a 60-40 "successful" loss for Paul, but the vast majority of the time the results are 80-20 against Paul. Suddenly he needs exactly the opposite: 80% supporting and 20% or less against him.

But even this is idea is little more than a pipe dream. The polls on Ron Paul’s own websites don’t paint a pretty picture: Paul rarely holds more than 10-20% support in many states. And these polls have been largely accurate this primary season…far more accurate than the ESPN analysts’ crystal balls on March Madness. (Authors Note: Mizzou? Duke? Srsly?)

There’s very little reason to doubt that the averaged results on sites like RealClearPolitics, Rasmussen, and Gallup are accurate. The Paul's supporters might reject them, but the reality is that these polls have given a pretty good guess about primary outcomes. It would be a gross mistake to assume that a poll giving Ron Paul less than 15% of the popular vote is wrong to the tune of being 65% off. If these pollsters were that bad at their jobs then RealClearPolitics, Gallup, and Scott Rasmussen would be ignored, and unknown. The reality is that they are neither ignored nor unknown…they’re very good at what they do.

While some dream and salivate over the idea of a brokered convention the truth is that if the convention is a game of Texas Hold ‘Em, the flop is Ace, Queen, Jack, and Ron Paul is holding a 7-2. Mitt has an Ace, Rick has a Queen, and God only knows what Newt is holding--but it could prove

handy in a brokered convention as his delegates could really help someone out if need be.

Ultimately the demagoguery, the bumper stickers, the faux victory speeches, and the Ron Paul Revolution aren’t going to stand up to the harsh reality: Ron Paul isn’t going to win anything. Sure, he might pick up one or two states, but anything less than nearly total domination of the upcoming primaries is nothing less than superficial. The only thing that Ron Paul has won are internet polls that are neither accurate or scientific. Sooner or later Paulistas are going to have to decide: do they want four more years of failure from Obama, or are they going to try to stop our slide towards socialism by voting for Rick Santorum or Mitt Romney?
At the end of the day it’s the only choice they have left. Thinking anything more than that is to live in a deluded world that will never match the reality the rest of the country has to live in.

--Yitzach Meyer

Afterthought:
If one carefully examines the recent debates it’s fairly clear that Mitt and Ron don’t really attack each other. In fact, the last debate had Mitt and Ron practically playing footsies. Why? The current theory is that Ron wants a spot in the new administration under the heir-apparent, Mitt Romney. The hardcore Paulistas should ask why Ron is currying favor with a big-government moderate who authored a bill that was the starting point for ObamaCare. Just food for thought!