We’re so close and yet so far from the GOP nominee being officially being named. Here’s my take on the primary situation: it’s Mitt. This has nothing to do with issues as much as it does delegates and raw numbers. Rush Limbaugh made a great point when he said that Mitt doesn't win debates--he survives them. While Romney doesn’t have it sewed yet the harsh reality for everyone else is that he will have it in the bag soon—unless the unthinkable happens. Here’s what that "unthinkable miracle" probably looks like.
As I stated in a previous post, Ron Paul has an impossible math problem (which is more impossible now than it was when I wrote it—see the original post here: Ron Paul's Impossible Math Problem). Ron is statistically done by probably April 3rd or so as he can’t win one primary, much less the 100% he needs at this point.
Newt is in a bad spot too…his support rivals Ron Paul’s (that is, single-digits), so he’s short of support—and cash too, as Drudge reports that he’s charging $50 for a pic. He’s got a little pile of delegates, and while it dwarfs Ron’s collection, it’s far shy of Rick’s and Mitt’s gatherings.
Rick has the most delegates out of the Non-Mitts—but it’s still not enough. Again, Drudge reports that Rick needs a 75% winning streak to bag the nomination. Odds are, he can’t gather enough delegates before Mitt does. Or can he? A Santorum victory is theoretically possible, and even plausible given that three events happen.
First, Ron Paul drops out. Paul admitted that his odds for the White House were slim, and even hinted that he was largely drumming up support for the libertarian cause. Fair enough. Paul got himself in the limelight, and people heard him. Great. That’s fine. But Ron isn’t winning—but what he is doing is drawing votes away from Rick—which ultimately helps Romney alone. Libertarianism will go on, most certainly. But there is no good cause for Paul to stay in the race at this point: it’s expensive and Paul isn’t getting free camera time in front of millions of voters anymore. The debates are over, and the public eye is elsewhere. In short: message delivered, we all got your point, now are you going to help Romney or help Rick?
Second, Newt has to drop out. He’s got more delegates than Paul, sure, but he’s not won anything huge recently. Georgia wasn’t much of a win: it’s his home state. The first clue that it’s over for Newt should be that he’s trading places with Ron for finishing last. The road to the nomination is not won by playing leapfrog for last place.
Third, and finally, Ron and Newt both have to do the unthinkable: they have to endorse Rick, and beg their delegates and supporters to throw in behind Santorum. If all their delegates went to Rick (a big if), he’d be sitting at around 450. Santorum would still be 100 delegates behind Mitt Romney but two states worth of voting could easily even the playing field. At that point, Romney would be split for odds, and the whole “Inevitable Candidate” image is in the dumpster. Additionally, there are undoubtedly some Romney voters who would jump ship because Mitt is no longer “inevitable”. Rick might not win, but he’d have a fighting chance, and a darn good one at that. The odds for the upset would go up drastically. (Whether or not this is actually good for the party/process/election in November is another idea entirely).
Personally I severely doubt this will happen. Newt Gingrich is a stubborn, and proud man. He’s a hard fighter, and buckling to a nobody like Santorum is beneath him. Ron Paul will stay in because he honestly thinks there’s something to be gained by doing so. In short, Newt is too stubborn to quit, and Ron is too deluded. End result? Romney wins. There are few that will argue that Romney is the most conservative of the four. Rick and Newt draw the more conservative crowd, and Ron Paul’s followers should loathe Romney as a big government fat cat. It makes sense that these three are somewhat sharing a similar voter base—and sharing will not result in any of the three winning over Mitt. I’ve talked with a lot of people, read a lot of articles, watched a lot of primaries, debates, and punditry, and I can safely conclude that from the basic conservative voter all the way up to Rush Limbaugh does not love Mitt Romney. They just vastly prefer him compared to Obama.
Barring the "unthinkable miracle", the real question is for the hardcore Rick/Newt supporters and the Paulbots: when Mitt wins it, are you going to take your toys and go home? Or are you going to stick around and help the country do it’s best to fire one of the worst presidents in our history? Robert Heinlein once said, “If you are part of a society that votes, then do so. There may be no candidates and no measures you want to vote for ... but there are certain to be ones you want to vote against. In case of doubt, vote against. By this rule you will rarely go wrong.” My plea for the GOP base is at the very least to stop grousing over the candidate you cannot have, and get with the one you can have. Mitt may or may not be many things, but one thing he is not: worse than what we have now. Come November this country needs you to pull up your pants and vote. If you can’t do this then the rest of us don’t want to hear your whining for the next four years.
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