Showing posts with label iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label iran. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

What Saeed Adedini's case says about US Legitimacy


            One of the roles of the State Department is the protection of Americans living and traveling abroad. John Kerry, as Secretary of State is the head of this agency.
            Yet in September of 2012 the State Department failed to accomplish this protection as Ambassador Chris Stevens, and four other Americans were gunned down in Benghazi under the watch of then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Unfortunately again the Department and John Kerry are again failing to protect Americans abroad as the plight of Saeed Adedini, an imprisoned American in Iran, goes unheeded. As nuclear negotiations with Iran are set to move forward, Saeed has been left behind in a dangerous third world prison. Saeed's imprisonment and treatment (including torture) are violations of human rights--and he is not the only one in this situation as several other Americans are also imprisoned.
            If the current negotiations with Iran (headed by Mr. Kerry) cannot include the release of one or two American prisoners then one must wonder just how effect those negotiations are. John Kerry believes he can negotiate the cessation of Iran’s illicit nuclear activities. If he cannot, or will not advocate for the release of at least one American what makes the world believe he can negotiate a nuclear treaty? What is easier to accomplish: the negotiation of the release of a few Americans, or the negotiation of the cessation and dismantlement of an entire secretive and illegal nuclear program?
            Conversely, if Iran continues to refuse Saeed’s release and humane treatment then this suggests there is little reason to trust that they will do something that demands more effort--as in the wholesale disassembly of their uranium centrifuges. Again, what is easier to do? Release a few political dissidents, or shut down an entire uranium enrichment program?
            This suggests that neither John Kerry nor the Iranians have any legitimacy at the negotiating table. It is likely Kerry either  will not or cannot accomplish the release of Saeed. He is either powerless to do so, or willfully weak on the issue. There will likely be no consequences for Iran’s illegal detention and torture of Saeed, yet Kerry would have the world believe that he bears the power to coerce a jihadist and terrorist sponsoring state to bend its nuclear will to the international community. Yet all the while Kerry has been part of an administration that is rolling back sanctions on Iran in exchange for nothing at all. In light of this and recent events in Syria, the idea of enforceable consequences is somewhat laughable.
            Likewise, Iran itself is also lacking in legitimacy with its human rights failures, and willful violations of Saeed’s human rights. Iran’s suppression of its own people and press, anti-Semitic rhetoric, Holocaust denial, and carte blanche funding of terrorism in Syria and Lebanon utterly shred any semblance of a notion that the nation would comply to a nuclear standard. There have been increasingly few consequences for their other sins. In the face of a weak and compromising administration, what have they to fear for their current sins?
Iran’s leadership already believes it is more powerful than the United States leadership, and has said as much. Given the recent method of “red lines without consequences” as embraced by the US, their bravado is somewhat warranted. As Saeed is still imprisoned and the uranium centrifuges keep spinning, the United States is woefully (and perhaps willfully) powerless to stop either evil from continuing on its merry way.

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Much to Gain, Little to Lose: Debate Three


            Mitt Romney and Barakc Obama square off for the third time on Monday night. Sorry Monday Night Football, but there’s a bigger fight in town. The debate will air live from Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida and focus solely on foreign policy. Truth is, this one is a boon to Mitt Romney.
            The last three debates have all been interesting. This one should be no different. Mitt Romney has a golden opportunity to hammer the President on this subject, and take little damage himself. Barack Obama bungled the Arab Spring, Egypt, and now Libya. The beauty of the situation for Mitt is that he can play offense all evening long. He can attack Barack on Iran, Afghanistan, Benghazi and so on. Mitt’s offensive attacks have the potential to make Monday a devastating evening for Barack Obama’s polls numbers, which are sinking daily.
            The dirty little secret here is of course that Barack doesn’t have many offensive options. In fact, he’s only got one: Mitt Romney’s lack of foreign policy experience. The parry to this attack is simple: “Neither did you Mr. President, and you’ve made a mess. Who are you to tell the American People that I’ll be worse?” Obama can and will at least try to attack Mitt Romney, but the truth is that Mitt has next to nothing to defend—and he’s got lots of attack options. It wasn’t Mitt that blew the last 4 years of foreign policy—it was Barack Obama. Mitt doesn’t need to give an account for anything. Barack needs to give an account for everything.
            In short, this debate it Mitt’s to lose. He stumbled a little last debate on Libya, but with some good prep time and newly minted attacks he could leave the viewers marveling at the mistakes Obama has made. Mitt needs to own the counter attacks, destroy excuses, and use the verifiable truth. He also needs to be prepared to push back at the moderator should it come down to it. For Mitt, the facts and data that have been uncovered since September 11 are all the ammo he needs. If he blows this, he’ll have no one to blame but himself. If he wins it handily Barack Obama better hope for a miracle. He’ll certainly need it.