State of the Primaries: Either Mitt or Miracle

We’re so close and yet so far from the GOP nominee being officially being named. Here’s my take on the primary situation: it’s Mitt. This has nothing to do with issues as much as it does delegates and raw numbers. Rush Limbaugh made a great point when he said that Mitt doesn't win debates--he survives them. While Romney doesn’t have it sewed yet the harsh reality for everyone else is that he will have it in the bag soon—unless the unthinkable happens. Here’s what that "unthinkable miracle" probably looks like.

As I stated in a previous post, Ron Paul has an impossible math problem (which is more impossible now than it was when I wrote it—see the original post here: Ron Paul's Impossible Math Problem). Ron is statistically done by probably April 3rd or so as he can’t win one primary, much less the 100% he needs at this point.

Newt is in a bad spot too…his support rivals Ron Paul’s (that is, single-digits), so he’s short of support—and cash too, as Drudge reports that he’s charging $50 for a pic. He’s got a little pile of delegates, and while it dwarfs Ron’s collection, it’s far shy of Rick’s and Mitt’s gatherings.

Rick has the most delegates out of the Non-Mitts—but it’s still not enough. Again, Drudge reports that Rick needs a 75% winning streak to bag the nomination. Odds are, he can’t gather enough delegates before Mitt does. Or can he? A Santorum victory is theoretically possible, and even plausible given that three events happen.

First, Ron Paul drops out. Paul admitted that his odds for the White House were slim, and even hinted that he was largely drumming up support for the libertarian cause. Fair enough. Paul got himself in the limelight, and people heard him. Great. That’s fine. But Ron isn’t winning—but what he is doing is drawing votes away from Rick—which ultimately helps Romney alone. Libertarianism will go on, most certainly. But there is no good cause for Paul to stay in the race at this point: it’s expensive and Paul isn’t getting free camera time in front of millions of voters anymore. The debates are over, and the public eye is elsewhere. In short: message delivered, we all got your point, now are you going to help Romney or help Rick?

Second, Newt has to drop out. He’s got more delegates than Paul, sure, but he’s not won anything huge recently. Georgia wasn’t much of a win: it’s his home state. The first clue that it’s over for Newt should be that he’s trading places with Ron for finishing last. The road to the nomination is not won by playing leapfrog for last place.

Third, and finally, Ron and Newt both have to do the unthinkable: they have to endorse Rick, and beg their delegates and supporters to throw in behind Santorum. If all their delegates went to Rick (a big if), he’d be sitting at around 450. Santorum would still be 100 delegates behind Mitt Romney but two states worth of voting could easily even the playing field. At that point, Romney would be split for odds, and the whole “Inevitable Candidate” image is in the dumpster. Additionally, there are undoubtedly some Romney voters who would jump ship because Mitt is no longer “inevitable”. Rick might not win, but he’d have a fighting chance, and a darn good one at that. The odds for the upset would go up drastically. (Whether or not this is actually good for the party/process/election in November is another idea entirely).

Personally I severely doubt this will happen. Newt Gingrich is a stubborn, and proud man. He’s a hard fighter, and buckling to a nobody like Santorum is beneath him. Ron Paul will stay in because he honestly thinks there’s something to be gained by doing so. In short, Newt is too stubborn to quit, and Ron is too deluded. End result? Romney wins. There are few that will argue that Romney is the most conservative of the four. Rick and Newt draw the more conservative crowd, and Ron Paul’s followers should loathe Romney as a big government fat cat. It makes sense that these three are somewhat sharing a similar voter base—and sharing will not result in any of the three winning over Mitt. I’ve talked with a lot of people, read a lot of articles, watched a lot of primaries, debates, and punditry, and I can safely conclude that from the basic conservative voter all the way up to Rush Limbaugh does not love Mitt Romney. They just vastly prefer him compared to Obama.

Barring the "unthinkable miracle", the real question is for the hardcore Rick/Newt supporters and the Paulbots: when Mitt wins it, are you going to take your toys and go home? Or are you going to stick around and help the country do it’s best to fire one of the worst presidents in our history? Robert Heinlein once said, “If you are part of a society that votes, then do so. There may be no candidates and no measures you want to vote for ... but there are certain to be ones you want to vote against. In case of doubt, vote against. By this rule you will rarely go wrong.” My plea for the GOP base is at the very least to stop grousing over the candidate you cannot have, and get with the one you can have. Mitt may or may not be many things, but one thing he is not: worse than what we have now. Come November this country needs you to pull up your pants and vote. If you can’t do this then the rest of us don’t want to hear your whining for the next four years.

Ron Paul's Impossible Math Problem

If you’ve ever gone out in public, paid any smattering of attention to the GOP Primary process, or even gotten online you know that there’s a war on. The GOP candidates are fighting hard for the nomination, and while each has waged a good war and a good fight, the end is nigh for one, maybe two of the candidates. Ron Paul is one such candidate who is at the end of even possibly becoming the nominee.

Stats website Intrade currently gives Ron Paul a 1.3% chance of winning the nomination. Such a percentage number means that Mitt Romney would have to get caught in a hot tub full of seventeen-year-old chicks, Rick Santorum would have to eat a live kitten on camera, and Newt Gingrich would have to go streaking through Washington D.C. for Paul to have a shot at the nomination. In short? It’s over. First, Ron Paul has an impossible math problem to beat. Second, he lacks the support to propel himself past the pull of reality and into the chair of the nomination.

The Republican primary is basically a fight for 1144 out of two thousand some-odd delegates. Who ever reaches 1144 first, wins. If no one wins 1144 delegates the convention is a brokered mess—candidates trying to sway delegates to their side.

Currently, 928 delegates have been “won” more or less according to the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times. This leaves 1358 delegates in the pool, according to the New York Times site. This is Ron Paul’s Impossible Math Problem: currently Mr. Paul has 48 delegates, but for the sake of nice round numbers, we’ll say 44. This means Mr. Paul needs 1100 delegates out of the remaining 1358 to get himself to the 1144 majority. Expressed as a percentage, Ron Paul needs to win 81% of the remaining delegates, by winning 81% of the vote more or less.

This brings up the second issue: if Ron Paul is a rocket, he’s out of gas and gravity is knocking on his door. He simply does not have the support he needs to win the nomination.
First, the reality of the states left in the pool will deny him the wins he needs. California (where Romney is +20 ahead) and Utah (LDS) are almost guaranteed Romney states. Between these two states there are 212 delegates Ron is almost certainly not going to win or—even get a taste of as these are winner-take-all states.

Thus, out of 1358 remaining delegates 212 aren’t even really a possibility. Again, rounding leaves us at 1358-200=1158. This means he must take first in a long list of remaining states…except that doesn’t work either. Most of the remaining states are not winner-take-all, which means that even if Paul took first place in somewhere like Illinois, he would have to share delegates with the 2^nd place man. In short: Ron Paul really can’t afford to lose…anything. He has to take 1^st place almost always from here on out in order to secure the nomination...and we haven't talked about Louisiana or Missouri where Rick Santorum is expected to win.

Second, while Ron Paul needs an impossibly long list of 1^st place finishes to clinch the GOP title; his own record denies that this is even reasonable to talk about. Ron Paul has yet to finish better than second. His best finish was in Virginia, and arguably because it was only himself versus Mitt Romney on the ballot. The road to the nomination and ultimately the White House is not paved with second, third, and last place finishes—and that’s all Ron Paul has. He needs the one thing he doesn’t have: solid, repeatable first-place finishes.

Thirdly, the number of 81% is a haunting number for the Paul supporters. Compared to the other candidates Paul has a bad record. If the “other guys” are lumped together (as Paulistas are wont to do) they can be thrown into the category of “Not-Ron-Paul”. Given this idea, “Not-Ron-Paul” usually gets 80% or more of the popular vote while Ron Paul takes 20% or less. Yes, Virginia was a 60-40 "successful" loss for Paul, but the vast majority of the time the results are 80-20 against Paul. Suddenly he needs exactly the opposite: 80% supporting and 20% or less against him.

But even this is idea is little more than a pipe dream. The polls on Ron Paul’s own websites don’t paint a pretty picture: Paul rarely holds more than 10-20% support in many states. And these polls have been largely accurate this primary season…far more accurate than the ESPN analysts’ crystal balls on March Madness. (Authors Note: Mizzou? Duke? Srsly?)

There’s very little reason to doubt that the averaged results on sites like RealClearPolitics, Rasmussen, and Gallup are accurate. The Paul's supporters might reject them, but the reality is that these polls have given a pretty good guess about primary outcomes. It would be a gross mistake to assume that a poll giving Ron Paul less than 15% of the popular vote is wrong to the tune of being 65% off. If these pollsters were that bad at their jobs then RealClearPolitics, Gallup, and Scott Rasmussen would be ignored, and unknown. The reality is that they are neither ignored nor unknown…they’re very good at what they do.

While some dream and salivate over the idea of a brokered convention the truth is that if the convention is a game of Texas Hold ‘Em, the flop is Ace, Queen, Jack, and Ron Paul is holding a 7-2. Mitt has an Ace, Rick has a Queen, and God only knows what Newt is holding--but it could prove

handy in a brokered convention as his delegates could really help someone out if need be.

Ultimately the demagoguery, the bumper stickers, the faux victory speeches, and the Ron Paul Revolution aren’t going to stand up to the harsh reality: Ron Paul isn’t going to win anything. Sure, he might pick up one or two states, but anything less than nearly total domination of the upcoming primaries is nothing less than superficial. The only thing that Ron Paul has won are internet polls that are neither accurate or scientific. Sooner or later Paulistas are going to have to decide: do they want four more years of failure from Obama, or are they going to try to stop our slide towards socialism by voting for Rick Santorum or Mitt Romney?
At the end of the day it’s the only choice they have left. Thinking anything more than that is to live in a deluded world that will never match the reality the rest of the country has to live in.

--Yitzach Meyer

Afterthought:
If one carefully examines the recent debates it’s fairly clear that Mitt and Ron don’t really attack each other. In fact, the last debate had Mitt and Ron practically playing footsies. Why? The current theory is that Ron wants a spot in the new administration under the heir-apparent, Mitt Romney. The hardcore Paulistas should ask why Ron is currying favor with a big-government moderate who authored a bill that was the starting point for ObamaCare. Just food for thought!

Reality Check for the Paulbots (Who won't read this)

If there’s one thing to be said about Ron Paul, it is that he probably has the most loyal supporters out of any GOP candidate. This does not apply to Barack Obama, as the only thing his supporters have left to stand on is their loyalty, and little else. Even so, Paul commands a very dedicated, albeit small, group of voters.

But the pipe dream of Ron Paul’s candidacy is coming to a close. Paul supporters are quick to point out that he’s “unique” and “one of a kind” and that “there’s no other candidate like him.” Many are also quick to point out that there’s no difference between the other GOP candidates…they’re all the same thing wearing different names. If this is indeed the case, Paul supporters would do well to realize that the candidates then fall into two categories: Ron Paul, and Not-Ron-Paul. If this then is the argument they make, then the harsh truth is that “Not-Ron-Paul” has consistently garnered the majority of votes. The best boast Paul has is a second place finish in New Hampshire, a state gutted of its delegates, and a second in Maine. Both times Mitt Romney beat him to the first place finish. While the race is about total delegates won, Mr. Paul has failed to win anything. Second place is a loss with a minority consolation prize at best—and only in states the divide their delegates proportionally. Furthermore, the road to the White House is not paved with 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th, place finishes. Paul is lagging in delegates behind the flagging Newt Gingrich, whose bull-in-a-china-closet methods won him South Carolina and lost him everything else. Truthfully, the odds aren’t good. In fact, they’re simply awful.

One of the official Ron Paul websites hosts the latest polling data from upcoming states. While the Paulistas are busy holding spray painted cardboard signs to change the world, the polling data from his on site suggests something very different is going on. In most states Paul is only holding single-digit percentages of voters. In the states where he holds double-digit percentages of support, he is still badly lagging behind the other candidates. The truth is, he’s not winning anything.
While many are quick to attack the mainstream polls with a hipster sneer, the facts that correspond to reality are thus: the only thing Ron Paul has actually won is non-scientific internet polls where his followers show up and stuff the ballot box.
If this weren’t true, he’d either lose those Internet polls, or win states…and unfortunately for Paul, he’s done neither.

Paul needs nothing short of a miracle. The other candidates are over 100 delegates ahead of Paul, and he is badly lagging in the polls, as over 500 delegates are up for grabs in the next 40 days. Aside from Newt being caught with Charlie Sheen and 7 gram rock, Rick Santorum being busted with kiddie-porn, and Mitt being ousted as a polygamist, (or something akin to this), Paul’s days as a even a mathematical possibility are dwindling fast.

Ron Paul may have garnered the most recorded military support. Ron Paul may have the most loyal followers. He may have the most organized ground forces, and the most technological methods. But in a world of Ron Paul versus Not-Ron-Paul, the one thing he doesn’t have is votes. There’s a host of reasons that might be offered as to why: his associations, dicey newsletters, inability to debate, foreign policy, personality, you name it. Any of these could be argued as possible causes for the lackluster support among the GOP voter base. Whatever the case may be, Gallup reports that he’s got a lot of negative feelings directed at him from voters…more so than he or his followers realize.

Ron Paul's supporters will have to face reality in 40 days. They will either help drive Barack Obama from the White House, or they will not. They can stay home, or vote for an impossible third party. Or, they can decide that the other candidates are preferable to another four years of socialism, failed policies, and the lame-duckery that has put our unemployment rate around 15%. Ron Paul supporters are hell-bent on their man in the face of reality. That is admirable and even fairly harmless at this stage. But come November, that mentality of “my way or the high way” will serve no other purpose than the reelection of Barack Hussein Obama. The Paulistas will have to put away their nasty words about the other candidate, and vote for him. Either that, or hold their peace for another four years while the country slides deeper into the hole our president so graciously dug for us.